As a non holder,but a watcher let me input some comments on your footnotes.(Disclosure to put into perspective as a less biased opinion). 1. Cash 145M US,and the inventory is mark to market current net worth. It's net worth not questionable at all,surelly within IWIP and IMIP they could sell those inventories exactly for the price stated(maybe they even kept their stockpiles together with Tsingshan,and they just kept on the accounts separately(for easier handling). To the “where the money went” I hope you able to read the cashflow statements to get your answer, on the other side virtually almost all expenditures been spend in the past years on expanding the company operations which is amazing. About where are they going to get 320M US actual cash to pay down debt? I believe you was talking about the 2024 April Maturity Senior debt? Which they will be able to easily generate the required cash in 18 month, in a matter of fact they might be able to come up with 180M US extra free cash flow if they won't invest elsewhere in the next~4 quarters (which they obviously will as this is pretty much still a growth story).Additionally there wouldn't be any issue whatsoever to roll over the debt with new terms.There are plenty of Yield hungry lenders who would be happy to lend at 10%/y to one of the lowest cost producers without much principal risk with heavy asset backing. 2. Record mining activity yes, but for saprolite the mining and actual sold tonnage went down quite a lot from last quarter(our main bread maker),but Limonite mining is sky rocketed, why? Well there is a thing called building inventory, to be able to safely manage future HPAL shipments in case of weather,or other distruption. And for my opinion here this is clearly the case. This massive inventory building of limonite might put some pressure in the coming quarter or two on the overall mining division margins(also on the inventory side of things I noticed a~2.5M US ore inventory build up which also decreased profits as those was not sold but expensed).
3.In Mining in general, and at ramp ups things can delay any time for a plethora of reasons, so far the company Chinese partners and the company management delivered super B performance compared to almost any other mining enterprises when it comes to timeline deliveries/reaching/exceeding nameplate production in a timely manner. Also even if the project delays 2 month compared to the vastly ahead of schedule new estimate(the original timeline was 2023 February delivery I believe?) it won't matter much, this company have to be viewed with 20-30-40 year time lenses, and in those context a month or two won't matter much. 4. It's all about supply and demand, Stingshan have secured contracts for certain amounts with China(so as Nickel industries with Tsingshan).Also please note that this is only a testing phase if the operation is much more profitable the company will switch more RKEF lines to Matte production over time.
(20min delay)