Crazy to say it, but YAL severely "under-earned" in the last quarter, despite the $1.5 billion increase in cash.
Looking at the numbers and as extensively alluded to in the quarterly report, they are really struggling with their costs.
I tried to dig a bit deeper. The table below is my calculation of "all in cash costs" per tonne on a quarterly basis. I have back calculated this based on cash generation, attributable sales tonnes, price etc. These costs include everything ex debt repayments and dividends. In other words, the costs are inclusive of mining, royalties, exploration and capital, corporate costs, interest payments etc. I suspect there may also be some hefty costs associated with buying high grade coal to blend and / or meet contract obligations, on the spot market - someone with more experience in the industry may be able to advise on that?
The cost increase to $205/tn in the last quarter is both a concern and a massive opportunity. As is the production volume which is about 25-30% below what they are capable of.
Good to know that despite all this, they still generated more cash in 2022 than the current enterprise value!
1Q 2T 3Q 4Q 2022 (full year) 1 Ave Price (A$/tn) 258 368 481 422 377 2 Cash generation (A$b) 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.5 6.2 3 Attributable sales (mn Tn) 7.8 7.9 6.7 6.9 29.3 4 implied "all in" cash cost (A$/tn) 130 140 197 205 166 5 Implied margin (A$/tn) 128 248 284 217 212
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