Ann: Quarterly Activities Report, page-20

Production and sales of thermal coal very weak in the MQ23. Production and sales of met coal moderately weak. Thermal coal sales/production were well below my expectations. But mining continues to be impacted by water issues. The good thing is production and sales expected to increase over the remaining 9 months and 2023 saleable production guidance has been maintained. I would suggest the 2023 outcome will be at the the lower end of the 31-36mt guidance range. Average realised coal price is very strong in MQ23 which is driving very strong cash flow of $A0.9 to $A1 billion in the MQ23.

Looking forward, production and sales should rise in JQ23 from 5.9mt in the MQ23 to say 7.3mt in the JQ23 (at a guess). Prices for the JQ23 are now largely locked in. I think the average realised coal might fall from $A347 per tonne in MQ23 to $A270 per tonne in JQ23 (thermal coal prices down a lot while partially offset by a modest rise in met coal prices). These numbers mean that YAL's cash flow in JQ23 could be in the range $A0.7 to $A0.8 billion. This is still a very large number. At the end of JQ23, YAL's net cash position might be around $A1.0 billion (assuming the tax liability is paid in the JQ ($A1.5b) and cap X of $0.2b as well as paying the dividend of $A0.9b).