Production and sales of thermal coal very weak in the MQ23....

Production and sales of thermal coal very weak in the MQ23. Production and sales of met coal moderately weak. Thermal coal sales/production were well below my expectations. But mining continues to be impacted by water issues. The good thing is production and sales expected to increase over the remaining 9 months and 2023 saleable production guidance has been maintained. I would suggest the 2023 outcome will be at the the lower end of the 31-36mt guidance range. Average realised coal price is very strong in MQ23 which is driving very strong cash flow of $A0.9 to $A1 billion in the MQ23.

Looking forward, production and sales should rise in JQ23 from 5.9mt in the MQ23 to say 7.3mt in the JQ23 (at a guess). Prices for the JQ23 are now largely locked in. I think the average realised coal might fall from $A347 per tonne in MQ23 to $A270 per tonne in JQ23 (thermal coal prices down a lot while partially offset by a modest rise in met coal prices). These numbers mean that YAL's cash flow in JQ23 could be in the range $A0.7 to $A0.8 billion. This is still a very large number. At the end of JQ23, YAL's net cash position might be around $A1.0 billion (assuming the tax liability is paid in the JQ ($A1.5b) and cap X of $0.2b as well as paying the dividend of $A0.9b).