LYC 0.60% $6.66 lynas rare earths limited

Report was a little better than expected. Though I always...

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    Report was a little better than expected. Though I always qualified my estimates by saying if production did not increase and I suspect it will not. It did increase in a major way. Based on AL comments in CC I expect them to make more NdPr Q4 than Q3 and maybe even meet NEXT. Production was up 14.4% over Q2 4457T which was an improvement. However, it was only up 2.2% over Q3 2022, 1687T. Total production for Q3 4348T was down from Q3 2022 4945T and Q2 4457T I think the decision to use ACID for NdPr was correct, but this points out just how tight the whole system is.
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5218/5218287-ad4bcc6519fd9b502faab5353955b918.jpg
    This is good news, but it does require some deeper digging.
    Revenu for Q3 2023 was A$237M, Q3 2022 A$328M, Q3 was - 38% in spite of the 14 % increase in NdPr production. Q2 2023 A$217M, Q3 Was 23 M + 10% which was very good. Because of the 90 ~140 day delay book to bill Prices in Q4 will be much lower. Also that Production expenses and CAP EX continue to rise while revenue continues to fall. First hits Profits which hits SP second hits A$1 B which many think is a large source of protection for troubled times.

    Most of posts above this just look at Q3 Looking at trends gives a much different picture.

 
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