RED 2.70% 36.0¢ red 5 limited

Ann: Quarterly activities report, page-36

  1. 2,337 Posts.
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    Well, not a good day for gold miners - RED fall is minor compared to some of the market darlings, including CMM which is re-rating in a negative sense, RMS down 5.5% and WGX down 4.2% ... and the whole mining sector.
    As I have repeatedly stated, the POG and the general market status are the ultimate arbiters of gold company prices.
    If profitable gold companies are being sold off like all gold has trend into lead, why would anyone buy a "speculative greenfield gold stock" ??
    It's still not clear to me why the conditions for a "new bull market" exist ??
    Also, why in a world of record debts & deficits and money printing would the gold price fall to unprofitable levels ??

    The continued credit crunch is going to see many zombie companies needing to refinance as their loans require rollover, get extinguished. The FED as usual, has maintained interest rates for tooo long and now things are going to be broken - that should get the unemployment up and see many bankruptcies and mortgage defaults.
    The latter will make the vulture capitalists joyful, and it will lead to a further concentration of ownership, especially in housing both local and internationally.

    Hard times see the bandage ripped off, and ruthless market evaluations .... a perfect storm for M&A.
    Col may well be right - RED may become a very desirable cheap(er) takeover target.
    RED's hedging is the only ' fly in the ointment ' that may give acquirers pause for thought.
    RED has 311,000 oz hedged at an average of A$2526/oz - the first tranche @ A$2150 will expire in FY24, and the second tranche @ around A$2700/oz will expire in FY'26. It would be prohibitively expensive to ay these out.
    ( see below how CMM bought out its hedges, confirming, I presume, a bullish outlook on the gold price ).
    The best way for RED to manage this is to optimise production and minimise costs .... the Petra report believes RED projections are conservative and that management has gone to considerable lengths to maximise transparency.
    So, buckle up or turn off - what ever suits ... and wait for better days.

    (this story below was posted at 2pm and some stocks mentioned have closed slightly higher)
    "A day after his old mob Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) copped an almighty hiding, Mark Clark’s market darling Capricorn Metals (ASX:CMM) has delivered one of the biggest sell-offs of reporting season, falling over 11% this morning.

    It came off the back of not only its production report but a 1.6% slide in gold prices overnight to US$1944/oz, hurt by a rising US dollar and strong economic data that raised the previously unlikely prospect of another US Fed rate hike.

    $1.6 billion capped Capricorn has been one of the gold industry’s leading lights in recent years, rising almost 1200% in value since 2018.

    But the low grade gold miner copped a whack despite hitting the midpoint of its annual gold production guidance of 115,000-125,000oz at the Karlawinda gold mine, with its FY23 costs of $1208/oz well within its $1160-1260/oz range, towards the bottom end of the global cost curve.

    One factor of course could be a static guidance for FY24, set at 115,000-125,000oz with AISC to outstrip 2023 levels at $1270-1370/oz alongside $10-20m in growth capital.

    Longer term CMM — which had $110.3m in the bank, a decrease from $119.5m at March 31 after spending $36.8m to close out part of its hedge book early — is planning to develop the Mt Gibson mine in WA’s Mid-West as an expansion asset around the middle of the decade.

    Capricorn was no orphan today. Gold stocks plummeted across the ASX, falling 4.41% amid broader negativity in the sector and indeed the whole mining market.

    Big three Northern Star (ASX:NST), Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) and Newcrest (ASX:NCM) fell 4.13%, 4.79% and 3.33% at 12.20pm AEST respectively.

    Regis (ASX:RRL), Perseus (ASXRU), Gold Road (ASX:GOR) and Resolute (ASX:RSG)proved even more exposed to the bad vibes, down 7.94%, 7.56%, 7% and 8.54%.

    The materials sector, home to the big mining stocks on the ASX, tumbled 1.64% this morning with lithium and iron ore stocks similarly unloved."

 
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