Ann: Quarterly Activities Report, page-66

I am interested in a punt here but I think you've hit the nail on the head viz a viz the market reaction. Why is it getting pantsed over 20%?

• Can't just be a smallish production guidance shrink, as some have noted already
• Can't just be AISC as the overall increase is not huge
• Can't just be putting Sugar Zone on C&M as it's not making money so looks the right decision (albeit perhaps a bit late)

For mine, has to mainly be Mr Market re-rating the FY24+ cashflows. If you (safely) assume a top end of AISC guidance of $2,050/oz and then annualise the Q4 average sales price of $2,874/oz that's margin of $824/oz. Assuming they hit midpoint of FY24 guidance of 220koz they're looking at EBITDA of around $181M. Now we deduct the capex, exploration spend and admin/corp costs and there's not a whole lot left over? $181M less $85M capex less $43M exploration less say $20M corp/admin = $33M. Obviously they have a big cash pile but the actual cashflow generation looks to be taking a hit, along with 220koz depleting as you say. Given the SBM bid they're clearly looking at M&A now so that cash pile isn't likely to be showered upon longsuffering shareholders.

Very happy/open to be convinced otherwise but that's how I'm thinking about it right now?