I am interested in a punt here but I think you've hit the nail on the head viz a viz the market reaction. Why is it getting pantsed over 20%?
- Can't just be a smallish production guidance shrink, as some have noted already
- Can't just be AISC as the overall increase is not huge
- Can't just be putting Sugar Zone on C&M as it's not making money so looks the right decision (albeit perhaps a bit late)
For mine, has to mainly be Mr Market re-rating the FY24+ cashflows. If you (safely) assume a top end of AISC guidance of $2,050/oz and then annualise the Q4 average sales price of $2,874/oz that's margin of $824/oz. Assuming they hit midpoint of FY24 guidance of 220koz they're looking at EBITDA of around $181M. Now we deduct the capex, exploration spend and admin/corp costs and there's not a whole lot left over? $181M less $85M capex less $43M exploration less say $20M corp/admin = $33M. Obviously they have a big cash pile but the actual cashflow generation looks to be taking a hit, along with 220koz depleting as you say. Given the SBM bid they're clearly looking at M&A now so that cash pile isn't likely to be showered upon longsuffering shareholders.
Very happy/open to be convinced otherwise but that's how I'm thinking about it right now?
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I am interested in a punt here but I think you've hit the nail...
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Last
$1.59 |
Change
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Mkt cap ! $1.481B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.56 | $1.59 | $1.55 | $8.648M | 5.519M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 4874 | $1.58 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$1.59 | 110800 | 7 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 4874 | 1.575 |
1 | 4874 | 1.570 |
1 | 4874 | 1.565 |
2 | 5109 | 1.560 |
3 | 14872 | 1.555 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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1.585 | 78450 | 5 |
1.590 | 11947 | 3 |
1.595 | 20501 | 3 |
1.600 | 19909 | 9 |
1.605 | 4874 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 27/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
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Change
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Last updated 15.59pm 27/05/2024 ? |
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