"Would love to understand a bit more of your insight and how you come about with your assessment of PAN
You were pretty spot on before SPP came and just wondering how you find your info."
Mostly just market experience I guess, having seen these cycles play out time and again across many sectors.
I was long PAN for a few short periods in 2021 because the trend in price was up but I was cognisant all through 2021 that we were very likely heading into a significant market top so I was much shorter term in holds back then than I am aiming to be now. I said on Twitter around April 2021 the market was in a climax run(look how vertical the US markets went coming out of covid compared to the previous 11 years) ... in December 2021 I moved to all cash(tweeted it at the time) although I did come back into the market both in December and then again in February 2022 in the commodity stocks as they all set to go again ... again this was the same way the market topped in 2008, most stocks topped in 2007 but resource stocks didn't top till mid 2008(iron ore was the leader at the time, FMG and co topped around June 2008, this time it was lithium and look at the climax runs in things like CXO and LKE into April 2022). I was long stocks like JRV and AGE through March 2022 and then one day in April, all resources stocks topped basically at the same time, XME and URA in the US got smashed on one day on big volume, that was the day to run and I did.
So by the time I called PAN a short on here, there was more than enough evidence that we were in a severe bear market, so that combined with the chart pattern on PAN, it was a high probability that it was going lower. PAN being a marginal miner rather than a BHP type, it was always a high probability that when the cycle turned, PAN would end up producing at a loss and end up in administration or back in C&M(look at all the small iron ore miners from the China boom years)
I stayed bearish on PAN because the trend remained down, it's a very simple analysis but that was always the real key. I currently have a similar view on lithium names, I may be wrong eventually but I said on HC they were done last year and names like CXO, SYA, NMT have all been destroyed(you can use the advanced search of my name on those lithos and you'll find my posts on them where I said they were done). It doens't bother me if I'm wrong and they survive and turn around because as a sector if that's to happen, they will all have big strong short cover moves up and then go sideways for months and form new bases ... if they all do that together then I start to get bullish and look for the time to buy them. I almost never try to buy bottoms, that game is for people with enough money to control markets i.e instos/funds
I can assure you I have no more info than anyone else, the thing that separates me from most retail punters is I'm smart enough to know that I'm dumb, follow what the big money players are doing(if a stock is trending down they are selling it) because it doesn't matter if they are wrong or right, the stock is going to move in the direction of their FA views, if something changes their view that will become obvious on the chart.
There's a long winded ramble, hopefully you get something out of it
(20min delay)