you need to account for the fact that not all their sales are newc price linked. 14% is met which will trade above the newc usd price, but around 30-40% of production is benchmarked to API5 which as per the sep23 quarterly was 88usd/t. This has come down I assume with newc.
Market cap currently 6.25B. EV is 6.25-0.92 net cash = 5.33B. This is likely going to be around 5B by CY end due to price lag from coal and higher production.
going forward, I calculate their run rate as follows:
0.5 * 120usd(NEWC) + 0.35*80usd (API5) + 0.15*160usd (SSCC/PCI) = 112USD which equiv to 177 AUD.
cash cost ex royalty mid point is 97aud/t as per latest quarterly (but if production stays high I think we ,can adjust this down) which gives cash margin ex royalty per tonne of 80aud. Assuming royalty per tonne of $22 (due to lower price, I’m on phone so quick and dirty here). It’s cash margin of 58 aud/t.
run rate next yr should hopefully be 38MT including middlemount equity accounted and capex lets say 650M. It’s a fcf of (58*38) * 0.7 - 600 = ~900m. That’s a fcf yield of about 17/18%.
obviously this number can change a LOT due to coal price assumptions. Eg if met coal and newc go up to 180 and 140 respectively for 2024, then fcf goes up to ~1.4-1.5B which is 30% fcf yield.
Disc holding for the dividends
If any of my numbers or assumptions are off please let me know
you need to account for the fact that not all their sales are...
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