FEX 2.50% 39.0¢ fenix resources ltd

Ann: Quarterly Activities Report, page-18

  1. 1,665 Posts.
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    They have a choice to make on Shine IMO. They either do as you say, and in the short term significantly ramp up production at IR, reduce the cost profile there from driving volume and then blend that with Shine, but as you say, this will only use a small proportion of Shines resources due to the heavily favored blending of the IR versus the Shine product, or they separate them and look at complimentary mines such as Beebyn.

    I've just listened to the webinar and nothing has changed my view of the mines. It was very very evident that Beebyn is the better resource and will have the greater focus. Just the words used around this was good. They kept mentioning Shine but without any adjectives, everytime they mentioned Beebyn it was wirth words like exciting etc, so clearly the focus is there and I think with a relatively short LOM left for IR (there were something like 6m of inferred resources left and 2m probable in the last annual report), then LOM is probably 4 years, potentially 5 (including the current year).

    Personally I still think they were saddled with Shine and it wasn't their priority. The priority was the port assets and without knowing what the port business will contribute is why I believe that acquisition was over valued as I personally do not see any value in the Shine asset and have very real concerns that they don't end up developing it and the webinar actually validated this even more for me.

    Its very clear that they want to access more mines that are essentially shovel ready, and this is a good business plan IMO,I've been involved in a company in the O&G industry in the past that has done exactly the same, acquire smaller deposits that larger companies don't see the return in committing capex and developing them, it makes a lot of sense for smaller companies and can be very profitable as IR has shown, however that doesn't make Shine a good investment. I've already shown the excessive discount that high silica ore provides and the Shine mine also had a relatively low yield from the ore mined, so IMO its relatively high cost, low margin. I can only see this really being a possibility of blending if it was blended with a low silica product that is close to the Shine mine. Potentially something can be done with mines closer to it, but IMO they have bough the port capacity at a premium. Ie. $5 / tonne C1 cash cost saving for around about $25m, albeit that they potentially could offset this with $2m should be Extension Hill mine assets provide some value, the biggest benefit of the sale of the Extension Hill mine asset sale was the removal of FEX as the party involved in the rehab.

    I like the strategy, but I've yet to see anything transformational that makes me think I desperately need to buy back in. I see Beebyn as being a move in the right direction, as you say its a complimentary mine to IR, potentially could continue to help reduce C1 cash costs at the IR / Beebyn complex through shared processing facilities and potentially further improvements in haulage that economies of scale provide.

    I would expect some to see a withdrawal from the farm in on Pharos, as clearly this isn't a target for FEX any longer. There is pretty much zero chance they will satisfy the farm in agreement.
 
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