Subject to the size of buyback they may be conflicted given...

Subject to the size of buyback they may be conflicted given their holding in Tanamin Gold. Their current holding stands at 47%. A buyback if it was material $20m - $30m would likely trigger an issue around foreign control. Putting this speculation aside they are well placed to pay a dividend subject to quarterly build in cash build. Similar to Auto my base case is $15m. APAC controls the company and will no doubt be holding their cash for Retails. MGX is a good precedent to review. Lets assume the capex cost has blown out to $120m - $150m. This capital call can be staged and done part debt, cash and possibly equity assuming our currency revalues in a supportive tin environment. This would be in the best interest of shareholders (assuming conflicts around BB). At the current EV/EBITDA of circa 2x (extrapolating quarterly EBITDA) the market is discounting fundamentals and the likelihood of any appreciation in the price of tin. The incentive price for the mining supply is 30t. We're currently well below this. At a certain point in the near future (likely coinciding with reduction in cash rates) spot needs to meet this. Otherwise the commodity is at risk of explosive upside. Its likely higher than 30T given most of the high grade tin has been extracted. All of which bodes very well for MLX. They are one of 2 stocks that can provide leveraged exposure as a producer. This is a very small funnel for institutional flows if the commodity turns. Moreover MLX is the only producer that is located in an ESG friendly jurisdiction.As an investor if your considering entering you have an asymmetric payoff. I'd be surprised if we ever traded as low as a 20% premium to cash backing. Circa 40% downside from here (noting this may occur simply from quarterly cash build without a re-rate in equity). While at the same time our upside under a mix of conservative cases ranges from 2x - 3x.