04 January 2024 Dear readers,
LME tin price renewed stabilisation at around $25,000 post-festive season reflects easing short selling pressure and high warrant cancellations, with a slight dip in stock levels. Despite continued positive demand indicators from the electronics and technology sectors, ample supply in China, marked by some recovery in SHFE stocks, tempers market optimism. Potential Q1 tightness in China's tin feedstock looms, hinging on post-Lunar New Year operational status of tin mines in Wa State. Upcoming Indonesian elections in February are noteworthy, as they may dictate tin export policies, amid new three-year licensing challenges for local smelters.
Jeremy Pearce - Market Intelligence & Communications |
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Partial resumption of mining in Wa State, excluding tin |
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Leaders of Wa State have authorised a partial resumption of mining in the area from 3rd January 2024, although most tin mines will remain closed for now. A mining ban came into force on 1st August 2023.
According to a document seen by ITA, on 28th December 2023 the Wa State Central Planning Committee (EPC) announced that most mining can resume in Wa State, with the notable exception of the Man Maw mine area, which accounts for almost all tin production in the autonomous region of Myanmar.
This announcement comes almost one month after on 1st December 2023, investors in the Man Maw tin mine area submitted an application to leaders in Wa State, stating financial difficulties and hoping to restart mining soon.
On 4th December, the Wa State Mineral Industry Administration held a meeting with investors in mines and processing plants in the Man Maw mine area. Discussions led to a successful vote to send a mine management proposal to the Wa State Central Committee for further review, which has not yet provided an update on the full proposal.
Processing of surface ore stockpiles has been allowed since September 2023, subject to a 30% tax-in-kind to the EPC, although these are now reported to be mostly exhausted.
The new announcement reaffirms that ownership of all mineral rights now belongs to the EPC. Investors must first apply for a Mineral Exploration Permit from the Bureau of Industry and Mining, before applying for a Mineral Mining Licence to enable the resumption of mining operations. New mining licences will be valid for a maximum of ten years, while Exploration Permits are valid for three years with the option to extend the permit for a further two years.
Our view: Optimistic forecasts estimate that tin mining in Man Maw may eventually resume after the Spring Festival in February. However, whilst progress on lifting the suspension is promising, significant obstacles remain. There are intensifying civil conflicts in neighbouring Shan State, ongoing crackdowns on telecommunications scams, and the time required to remobilise mining workforces and restart mining operations.
SHFE stocks of refined tin have declined from a 2023 peak of 9,700 t on 12th May to 6,300 t on 29th December, although refined tin imports have increased. Even if the tin mining suspension is lifted as soon as local traders suggest, 2024 Q1 may bring some China supply tightness. |
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Metals X provides a Renison Ore Reserve and mine life update |
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Metals X (ASX: MLX) has announced an updated Life of Mine Plan for Renison Bell, Australia’s largest tin mine, with the historic mine expected to operate until at least 2035. Proven and Probable Reserves now sit at 8.225 Mt at 1.48% Sn.
The company, who own 50% of the Renison project through the Bluestone Mines Tasmania JV Pty with Yunnan Tin Corporation, highlighted the total Renison Bell Proved and Probable Reserve is now 8.225 Mt at 1.48% Sn for 121 kt contained tin. There has been an increase in the cut-off grade from 0.65% Sn to 0.75% following economic analysis undertaken in the Life of Mine Plan update.
Over the last 12 months, there has been a 7% decrease in total Reserve ore and a 1.3% increase in Reserve tin grade, yielding a 5.7% decrease in Reserve contained tin at Renison underground. The company projects a mine life of over ten years, with grade anticipated to increase as the bulk of ore mined will be from the high-grade Area 5 and Leatherwood ore bodies. Production is therefore anticipated to ramp up to 955 kt Sn per annum from 2025.
Average site LOM All-in Costs have been estimated at AUD$26,247 per tonne Sn, inclusive of Capital Costs of AUD$3,832 per tonne Sn and Operating Costs of AUD$22,415 per tonne Sn.
Metals X Executive Director Brett Smith commented, “The updated Life of Mine Plan now extends out to 2035, with the first 10 years averaging more than 10,000 tonnes of tin per annum… The Life of Mine Plan does not yet include the additional contribution from the Rentails project, which provides an opportunity for the production of additional tin at a lower production cost.”
The Renison Tailings Retreatment project (Rentails) accounts for an additional Probable Ore Reserve of 99 kt contained Sn from Measured Resources of 23.9 Mt at 0.44% Sn giving 104 kt contained tin. The proposed project will treat the historical tailings over an eleven-year period at a rate of 2 Mt per annum, producing approximately 5,400 tonnes of tin per annum.
Our view: The updated ore reserves and Life of Mine Plan provide a clear projection for production towards eventual mine closure after 2035. We look forward to the extension of operations at Renison beyond 2035 with the Rentails project, pending environmental approvals and the completion of ongoing metallurgical test work.
Bluestone Mines Tasmania JV Pty and Yunnan Tin Corporation are members of the International Tin Association. |
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