Ill-advised Labor/Greens energy policies that ensure we pay more for power create a dilemma:

(from 'AFR' Thursday 4 January 2024):

Wind, solar farms give way to rooftop solar ‘juggernaut’

Angela Macdonald-SmithSenior resources writer

Jan 3, 2024 – 5.47pm

Wind and solar farms are bearing a bigger hit from the boom in rooftop solar than coal-fired power stations, with grid-scale renewable generation getting squeezed out of the electricity market as abundant power from rooftop panels causes wholesale prices to dive.

Data from electricity market analysts shows rooftop solar eroding the market share of wind and solar farms to near-zero on days such as December 31 in Victoria and South Australia, amid subdued demand for power from the grid.

While coal plants also ramp down to reduce exposure to negative prices, they have to maintain a minimum operating level, so account for almost all of grid-connected generation still running at those times. At 12.10pm on December 31, the only two supply sources running in Victoria were “the rooftop PV juggernaut” and eight of the state’s 10 brown coal power units.

“Rooftop solar is king, but it is subjugating not just coal but also wind and big solar,” said Melbourne-based economist Bruce Mountain, director of the Victoria Energy Policy Centre.

Professor Mountain noted in a blog post that Victorian spot electricity prices were less than -$50 a megawatt-hour between 6.20am and 5.35pm on New Year’s Eve, deterring generation from wind and solar projects.

“Clearly wind and big solar scaled back in response,” he wrote.

“Big paradox here: more (big) VRE [variable renewable energy] is needed to displace coal, but RTS [rooftop solar] is poisoning its water. Only huge expansion of storage will change this,” he added, noting that non-storage alternatives such as the active control of electricity consumption will also help.