I've updated my quarterly comparison to include more data. Edit: the earliest June Qtr (2021) has a Qtr production change of 33%. Couldn't re-upload the image.
To the long holders, RRL's best quarterly results have historically been in June, so it will be worth waiting until this coming June result is released. Price action following has also typically been strong for at least 5-10 days following.
As the price of gold has been relatively un-changed since the last quarterly, I assume RRL will be-able to achieve a realised price of $3000AUD/oz sold this quarter, which is conservative given they achieved $3126/oz last Qtr. I also agree with Bell Potter's report that it is likely RRL will be to produce 105koz, given their last 9 Qtrs had an avg production of 110.7koz and their June Qtrs are even higher at 120.1koz. Taking the $3000 assumed sale price and the avg between the last 9 Qtrs and their June Qtrs we should expect around 115.4koz produced this coming report. As for the sales side, being conservative with 100koz sold, this would suggest $300 Million @ a realised price of $3000/oz; I believe the actual result will probably come in around 128koz sold so that would be 384 million.
Looking towards the more long term holders, while McPhillamy's project is primarily a lower grade source, if the price of gold does indeed continue to rise over the coming years, just having rights to the project should make RRL more desirable for a takeover as the feasibility becomes more and more viable as time goes on. As environmental standards will likely restrict or increase approvals of new mines, having the project at the ready to undertake stage is already a positive achievement, even if they don't have the funds to actually progress it further (for now). It will be interesting to see how gold moves when interest rates do finally start lowering over the next couple of years as historically, this should be more bullish than bearish.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/10/gold-miners-struggle-with-excavating-more-says-world-gold-council.html
(20min delay)