Was hoping to write all my comments at once. I am never going to...

Was hoping to write all my comments at once. I am never going to find the time. So I will divide it up. Today is just about revenue and Profit potential. Revenue was 101M, low by 3 different measurements. YOY this was down 58% which is bad for any company. We all knew this would drop so maybe we can make some exceptions it was also down 8,6% QOQ this was totally unexpected. With shut down in Q2 I and most other people thought it would be up some. In fact Consensus Analyst was AU$ 146M, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/australias-lynas-rare-earths-q3-223253503.html, so Lynas was down 31% from what analyst expected. This all makes me say this was a horrible report in spite of what AL said.

People on this board are starting to say it is because they are building inventory. The Article above quotes Al What she said was "and will hold on to inventories to wait for prices to improve," to Me this does not say she is increasing inventories. In SAR note 7 Finished goods inventory was $8.6M down from $22M in AR 6 months earlier. There is no way to tell what is really happening till 2024 AR.


profits are not given in Q reports but they need to be mentioned. In US profits are reported every Q. I think this is a big distraction. If you Take Sales Revenue, not Receipts, add and subtract other cash flows You will have a number that is about 5%~15% larger than what will be reported in ARs and SARs. The primary reason for this delta is depreciation is not included in Cash flow. It is included in profits. Most of this is easy to figure out by reading notes in AR and SAR. Last year the estimates were higher in 2023 AR and lower In 2024 SAR. Caused by inventory changes and CAP X at lamp.
I have been saying 2024 profits will be less than AU$150M with the Q 3 Report I am lowering this to Less than 100M. 2023 had profits of $310 if 2024 comes in at $100 M that will be a 68% drop in earnings YOY. I seriously doubt they will do $100M. Invest based on what you think not on my opinions.

Here is a chart that shows this over last 33 Months

		Q1,Q2, Q3,Q4 2022	Q 1 & Q2 2023	Q1,Q2, Q3,Q4 2023	Q 1 & Q2 2024	Q3 2024
1	Revenue	945	397	792	240.5	101
2	Cost of sale & ad.	-340	-239	-431	-222	-96.3
3	interest	-2.6	3.5	25	20.3	8.6
4	Profit from Q reportts	602.4	161.5	386	38.8	13.3
5	Profit from SAR or AR no exchange included	541	150	310	39.5
6	diff	10.19%	7.12%	19.69%	-1.80%