I haven't re-done the numbers for a little while but that's...

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illalong

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02/05/24

16:18

Post #: 73634518
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Originally posted by prhb: ↑

The quarterly held to forecast, but at the lower end of ounces, and higher end of costs.

Some rough assumptions:
I have taken a stab at a worksheet based on 61,000 oz production at a cost of $2075 per ounce. - within guidance from their statement above.
Call it a straw man, and chuck rocks at it as you will.
Production for the first none months was 39898 oz at an AISC of $2247, so to meet the assumed 61,000 oz, they need 21102 oz this quarter.
To hit the $2075 AISC for the year, they need the final quarter to be at $1750 per ounce. My math could be crap, so feel free to correct it.

If they can achieve this quarter at $1750 per ounce, then I assume they can continue to do so for the next year - i.e. a year of 80,000 oz.
Given the higher grade of the Roswell ore, there is every likelihood that this revenue can be achieved with the existing 1.2m mill - together with the new paste plant.
Using a gold price of AUD$3,300 for the year (unlikely, could be higher), and accounting for their hedge commitments, and a quarterly corporate overhead of $3m (Their half yearly report had a six month Other Expenses of $5.1m).

The result is still very profitable for next year - some $92m before other capital expenses. Plenty of firepower to start on the highway.

Some thoughts on diverting the Newell.
600k oz of resource is a couple of billion dollars revenue, so I think its safe to assume the project will proceed - but when?
8.3km long, at least one lane each direction. It has the advantage of being able to be constructed without impacting traffic, apart from where it connects into existing highway.
I am guessing (would love some informed knowledge from someone who might actually know) that the project will be a minimum of a years duration, probably longer with Kyalite overpass.

Projects of this scale would have progress payments - lets assume the total is $100m as per Joelstar's finger in the wind post - that might give us four payments of maybe $25m each.
Looking at the spreadsheet, It is entirely conceivable that Alkane could fund the highway by themselves.

Looking for better analysts than I am to shine more light on this thinking.

GLTA

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I haven't re-done the numbers for a little while but that's basically my thoughts.
I think getting first ore out of Roswell is huge, next is the fine grind circuit running at capacity.

I *think* Boda-Kaiser should be worth a lot, but I think they have a good chance of 10 years + at 120koz p.a. with an AISC around 1800. Looks pretty great to me.

ALK Price at posting: 58.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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