From NGE presentation on 6/5/24.
Portfolio holding – Metals X
Description
• Tin producer with a 50% interest in the Renison Tin
Operation, Tasmania.
Situation
• Tin price has strengthened due to curtailed supply from
Myanmar and Indonesia.
• Area 5 expansion project now complete, expected to yield
higher ore grades and increased production.
• Strong balance sheet.
• On-market buyback facility in place.
Assessment
• High operational leverage to tin price.
• Potential for further mine-life extensions via additional
conversion of existing resources to reserves, exploration
upside, or by tying-in other nearby tin deposits
• Improved transparency on capital allocation and further capital
returns to shareholders would alleviate investor concerns
about risk of mal-investment.
• Supply deficit forecast to increase from 2025 as tin demand
grows, supporting long term price uplift.
Ticker ASX : MLX
Share price (30 Apr 24) $ 0.455
Market cap $m 412
EV1 $m 250
EV/EBITDA (FY24E)2 x 2.7
EV/FCF (FY24E)2 x 4.7
NGE position size % 9.0% of NGE portfolio
Source: Company filings, IRESS, NGE analysis.
Note: DCF based on updated Life-of-Mine Plan published in December 2023.
Assumes WACC of 12%, LT AUD:USD FX rate of 0.65.
Source: Company filings, IRESS, NGE analysis.
Note: FYE 31 December.
1 Adjusted for shareholdings in Nico Resources (NC1) and Tanami Gold (TAM). No
value attributed to Cyprium Metals CYM) convertible due to uncertainty around
Cyprium’s future sources of funding.
2 Assumes average tin price of US$27,500/t, 90% payable, AUD:USD FX rate of 0.65,
Sn production ~10.1kt (Dec-23 mine plan adjusted for lower-than-expected 1Q24),
capex A$80m.
Valuation
Long-Term Tin Price (US$/t)
$25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000
DCF per
share
(A$) $0.49 $0.65 $0.81 $0.97
My note: the current tin price is around $US 32000
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Last
40.5¢ |
Change
0.005(1.25%) |
Mkt cap ! $367.0M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
40.5¢ | 41.0¢ | 40.0¢ | $506.9K | 1.251M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
5 | 117811 | 40.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
41.0¢ | 177718 | 6 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 40000 | 0.405 |
3 | 75549 | 0.400 |
5 | 224664 | 0.395 |
6 | 310064 | 0.390 |
4 | 105778 | 0.385 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.405 | 1 | 1 |
0.410 | 105053 | 3 |
0.415 | 126919 | 4 |
0.420 | 62150 | 3 |
0.425 | 247641 | 3 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 25/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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