From NGE presentation on 6/5/24.Portfolio holding – Metals...

From NGE presentation on 6/5/24.

Portfolio holding – Metals X

Description
• Tin producer with a 50% interest in the Renison Tin
Operation, Tasmania.
Situation
• Tin price has strengthened due to curtailed supply from
Myanmar and Indonesia.
• Area 5 expansion project now complete, expected to yield
higher ore grades and increased production.
• Strong balance sheet.
• On-market buyback facility in place.
Assessment
• High operational leverage to tin price.
• Potential for further mine-life extensions via additional
conversion of existing resources to reserves, exploration
upside, or by tying-in other nearby tin deposits
• Improved transparency on capital allocation and further capital
returns to shareholders would alleviate investor concerns
about risk of mal-investment.
• Supply deficit forecast to increase from 2025 as tin demand
grows, supporting long term price uplift.

Ticker ASX : MLX
Share price (30 Apr 24) $ 0.455
Market cap $m 412
EV1 $m 250
EV/EBITDA (FY24E)2 x 2.7
EV/FCF (FY24E)2 x 4.7
NGE position size % 9.0% of NGE portfolio


Source: Company filings, IRESS, NGE analysis.
Note: DCF based on updated Life-of-Mine Plan published in December 2023.
Assumes WACC of 12%, LT AUD:USD FX rate of 0.65.
Source: Company filings, IRESS, NGE analysis.
Note: FYE 31 December.
1 Adjusted for shareholdings in Nico Resources (NC1) and Tanami Gold (TAM). No
value attributed to Cyprium Metals CYM) convertible due to uncertainty around
Cyprium’s future sources of funding.
2 Assumes average tin price of US$27,500/t, 90% payable, AUD:USD FX rate of 0.65,
Sn production ~10.1kt (Dec-23 mine plan adjusted for lower-than-expected 1Q24),
capex A$80m.
Valuation
Long-Term Tin Price (US$/t)
$25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000
DCF per
share
(A$) $0.49 $0.65 $0.81 $0.97

My note: the current tin price is around $US 32000