Dollars $$
The reported 5% project progress in the quarter (39% to 44%) appears to be measured on the basis of dollars spent, against the estimated capital spend of $1,287million. ($512m to $572m, $60m in the quarter.)
Such a method of progress calculation & reporting is only as accurate as the "base case capital requirements" as estimated for the project, which at this rate of progress indicate another 11 x quarters to achieve completion or completion in Q3 2027.
If $1,287mill figure moves then the progress is not accurate, and what are the confidence levels around any estimate on a spend programme to Q3 2027??
Last quarter update highlighted that there was no usage of the $156m contingency, this quarterly does not mention the status of the contingency?
The other item of spend is the cumulative $118m (out of $690m) of indirect spend on Mardie, I estimate that this has increased from a cumulative total last quarterly of $63m ($575m this Q - $512 last quarterly update). What is "indirect" spend? and if it is $55m this quarter, where is it going??
Schedule
The projection for Q2 2027 for first salt suggests that either construction progress will accelerate rapidly to meet programme or that construction activities will be concurrent with salt production processes.
The relatively low monthly progress of $20m per month, and "slow" programme is of concern to the budget/ total project spend and ultimate execution risk.
Is only 44% progress after ~3 years of concern?
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