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Ann: Quarterly Activities Report, page-224

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nammuldi

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05/08/24

15:42

Post #: 75076554
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Originally posted by Antipater_100: ↑

the narrative on those who understand why yields go up and down and can work out the real rate vs nominal rate was and still is correct.

many kept saying rates go up gold goes down and this has been the case for many years because: the most basic one is yields (bond market is first to act) go up when economy is running too hot and the central bank hikes rates to cool it. also, in the past the real rates were positive - meaning generating real income or an income above the inflation rate.

these days rates were going up while inflation was running even higher. central banks also issued 200 versions of inflation metrics so they can pick and chose which inflation is the one that "matters" when all of them really became and still are useless as none of them includes guess what - food and energy - yeas these are too volatile but these two are the ones that matter most when it comes to the family budgets and production costs.
so high interest rates today were still negative real rates. when coupled with astronomical and ever growing debt which means once the economy slows down Govs around the world will be forced to cut while inflation is still hot and guess what they will have to stimulate - meaning going into even more debt and faster than ever.
Never before the Anglo sphere faced such challenge and smart money understood this for while now - hence why gold this time around kept going up and is still at near ATH. Some understood the current central banks will never be able to win against the inflation and Govs are stuck with too much debt but will end up stimulating to try to save the day.
Also, many understood these rates could not stay at these levels for long due to too much debt in the system. We now have both too much public and private debt.
Can gold fall in short term - yes. Next week markets will probably continue melting down and margin calls will accelerate - remember too much debt - everyone is leveraged in the stock market. But these falls in the gold price will be short lived and by end of this calendar year god will most likely trade closer to $2600usd than $2400usd. Gold most likely will top $2500usd by end of Sep as the FED is most likely to cut by 50 points now and both Trump and Kamala will be announcing massive stimulus packages with money they don't have meaning US will be running over $4t (trillion) budget deficit in 2025 and that will take the US's debt to around $40t. US needs another $1.3t funding until the end of this calendar year and that takes them to ~ $36.3t of debt.
Right now 75% of all US tax collection is used to pay the interest on the existing debt.
Even with the rate cuts the 75% number will go up as US has another roughly $20t of debt they need to refinance from around 1.5% to around 4.5% and on top of that they will be adding more debt. lol
By end of 2025 around 85% of US's tax revenue will be used to pay interest on its debt - and do you know what happens when that number hits 100%?

This is why gold kept going up while rates were also moving up - those rates never went positive when measured against real inflation and now they will be going down while at same time the US will be stimulating via accelerated debt and inflation will still be hot. Yes the inflation without food, energy, real estate (they may put this one back if it starts falling) and anything that goes up is very low so it's fine to cut - just ask any central banker.

So yes, gold may fall another ~ $100 from here but it will be substantially higher by Christmas and probably by end of Sep due to rate cuts and stimulus announcement.

what I don't have an explanation is why gold miners are not going up - that beats me.

and at the end we all believe what want to believe. we all have biases.

Expand

good stuff Anti and i understand and agree. i also know that the simplistic narrative i put up can drive mkts - the savvy investors not so. gold often falls initially on panic becuase it is needed to cover margin calls, then it bounces back.

the miners sp - look at them today all beaten another 3-4% in line with overall mkt - shit if gold does take a short term down leg in next few days- this will really hurt them

however following this narrative - powder dry here for some bargain gold miners i hope in next week or 2.

ALK Price at posting: 40.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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Ann: Quarterly Activities Report, page-224

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Ann: Quarterly Activities Report, page-224

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