@Antipater_100Not as bearish as you are mate.This could turn out...

@Antipater_100
Not as bearish as you are mate.
This could turn out to be a fantastic entry point.
In fact, I've just put my money where my mouth is.

What we know???
1. ALK has a habit of being conservative with guidance (ALK is likely to hit or exceed their FY25 20k ounce per quarter guidance).
2. The Roswell orebody is geometrically cheap to mine (ALK is likely to hit the lower end of AISC guidance).
a) Roswell is wide (up to 30m in some sections meaning low dilution)
b) Short strike length (reduces development costs)
c) Ore pass (efficient multi-level mining reduces mine cost per ton)
d) Hybrid equipment replacing diesel (save fuel, longer operating window between refuels)
e) Grade superior to previous Tommingley mines.
f) Roswell/San Antonio extension opportunities along strike and down dip.
3. NMPP greenfield drilling success could lead to substantial re-rate.
4. Nic's last presentation was a massive improvement over previous efforts, (selling the story).
5. Cost guidance indicates ALK should make enough FCF over the next 2 years to cover the gap between CAPEX requirements and Cash on hand.

All my own thoughts.
DYOR
GLTAH