Absolutely true. There is a premium on Lynas. That is why the SP is 4 X what metrics say it should be. We have seen sectors and individual stock have premiums like this many times in history. Just a couple of the better known ones. Dot com 2020 it took 12 years for stocks to get back to their 1999 prices. Banks 2008 Most stocks are still blow there late 2007 price. Green energy 2021 Stock are still falling but are still way above normal metrics. For example Lynas has been running a PE of 80~ 90 since 2024 AR. I can say that the SAR will at best have a period adjusted EPS just a penny or two better than 2024 AR. PE of ASX 200 is about 30. PE of S&P 500 is in low 20s. Both Pay dividends which raises PE Lynas does not. I do not feel Lynas should reflect its EPS which would put SP below AUD 2.00. It has many pluses. Optimism always fades. That should bring stock down to the mid $4.00 range because there are many positives as you point out but not enough to justify a PE over 80.
The newest fade stocks are AI but that is already starting to lose some of its shine.
LYC Price at posting:
$7.72 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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