We know from the Annual Report 2022/2023 the profit margin has increased to 46% in 2023. As we scale up and shift to more e-commerce sales, we should see the profit margin reach 50% and then continue to climb. The MD has done a good job in cutting out middle men who were sucking dry the profits. If you work on a 50% profit margin, $3.6m fixed expenses other than manufacturing you can roughly estimate breakeven at $10.5m annually or at a run rate of $2.65m.
If we assume a current run rate of $800k this quarter then with 40% growth -
Q2 2024 - 800k
Q3 2024 - 1120k
Q4 2024 - 1568k
Q1 2025 - 2195k
Q2 2025 - 3073k
So by the end of next year (first half of the 2025 financial year) with a 50% profit margin (which should grow) and 40% growth across the 4 pillars we will hit the annualised run rate of $10.5m this time next year. If you wait to buy in then the company will have almost 6 bagged or have a MC of closer to $30m.
But it is a speculative buy. I understand that, so waiting for that clear trend might be an option that fits your risk profile better.
A statement like >50% QoQ continually is a misleading and generic. You should at least attempt to quantify it somehow.
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