Ann: Quarterly Activity Report - 30 September 2021, page-8

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FinFree101

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26/10/21

10:07

Post #: 57070529
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Originally posted by danhoff: ↑

I wonder what 12 months of antigen tests at 1 mill units a month earns you - the professional one. Did we guess $2 - $3 profit a unit.

The one off payment was low, but with the sidebar of the 20 mill antigen units supply, I guess 'ok'. Actually, there will be supply shortages, so the fact that 20 mill is booked to come in is a huge plus.

Not one mention of FebriDx. Everything is just pushed back again, to the half yearly. The one off payment will show up then. 3 full months of antigen sales. And hopefully a FebriDx approval. How can there be no mention of FebriDx into the nations that take it... Europe and Canada.

I wonder if next q (the one we are in) will be cash flow positive. They burnt $3 mill this q, but if you add in the $2.4 mill one off payment and the uptick of antigen then they must be cash flow positive this next Q. What is odd, is that the entire company has changed to an antigen reseller - at least for the next 6 to 12 months I guess. One can hope FebriDx will then kick in sometime in there.

I never really know what Mr Market will do. I almost get the feeling the share price is about right - mid 30s. Who knows.

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one clarification I would like to add to your analysis - assuming we are understanding AT1's account & reporting method correctly:

- Q1 FY22 = $2.2m (HIV + OEM + Ag)
- sales reported in Q1 FY22 = $2.4m (presuming Ag + HIV) = we already are exceeding Q1 FY22 (and Q4 FY21) receipts nicely?

So assuming HIV + Ag sales continue strongly through Q2 FY22 = mid-year FY22 receipts should be >50% of FY21 half-yearly (estimate $6-7m?)

Speculation: if the 10m professional + 10m self-test Ag kits are able to be sold by Dec'21, this should significantly boost FY22 half-yearly to much higher levels? For now, the trend looks like it will exceed FY21 mid-year $ comfortably. Whether it can significantly exceed it, we can gauge better after self-test approvals & any further large HIV/Ag order news comes through.

AT1 Price at posting: 35.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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