I know people will complain about this as being repetitive because they don't like the facts, but developing companies follow a pattern. At the beginning of their lives as a listed company, the price goes up as people are enticed by the story, even though the company has no revenue. Then the excitement dies down and the company goes through the long slog of developing its products and market and has little revenue and is loss making. This period is usually longer than everyone imagines and dilutions occur as the company usually needs to raise more money through CRs and the stock price stagnates or falls. Then eventually, if the company succeeds, its revenue grows rapidly and the share price takes off as it approaches profitability and it becomes a much better bet.
If you want to see this an action get a ten year chart up on a few small companies. But I'll describe a couple of cases here - DRO traded at around 40c in 2017 soon after listing, then the price fell and for the next six years its price bounced around 20c until its revenue took off as it had a bit of scale and approached profitability (its now $1.30). AL3 listed in 2019 at about 20c and by early 2020 was hyped up to 50c before going through its development stage where it languished around 6c until 2024 when its revenue began to get scale and approach profitability. It is not as far along as DRO in building its market, but spiked above 20c. Even in companies that fail the path is similar. CDE spiked to $10 (adjusting for a 25 to 1 consolidation) in 2015 soon after it listed, Then the share price just kept dropping as its revenue never grew. It remainse listed but there are no buyers, only sellers at $0.001. It's about to have another 10 to 1 consolidation.
So now look at 4DX, it has an identical pattern. Soon after listing, it spiked to $2.50, then once the excitement died down the share price collapsed to 50c, then its gone through a long flat period as the market waits to see whether the stock is an DRO or an AL3, or whether it is a CDE. This year its price has stepped down again (this is what occurred with CDE when its revenue failed to grow). Of course 4DX's future is yet to be decided - it is not a CDE - or at least not yet, but the pattern repeats yet again.
If you guys are guessing future share prices, you're looking at the result, not the cause. The revenue will tell you what you need to know. The only thing that will stop a slow decline, is banked revenue, or an announcement that quantifies future revenue.
StuPT and BPAA will tell you that I'm an idiot, and I keep banging on about revenue. That's because it is the only thing that counts. Listen to them if it makes you happy, but I'll stick to my knitting. For me, that means I agree that 4DX appears to have wonderful technology, but I'll just follow that endlessly repeating pattern. If revenue starts to look up and profitability is on the horizon, I'll buy, otherwise I'll sit out and let others hold while the company flatlines. What do I think will happen? My guess is that this company will eventually pick up, but there is more CRs on the way before then, so in the meantime I prefer greener pastures. If I'm wrong, I'll avoid a big loss. If I'm right, there is a chance that I'll miss a bit of the first leg up.
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