I think one hurdle is the software writoff this year. The...

I think one hurdle is the software writoff this year. The reported profit after depreciation will be negative because of the writeoff of Linear software. The fact this isvpurely an accounting write-off and not a cash flow thing will be lost on many punters. More sophisticated investors have probably figured (correctly as its turned out) that they can carry on making money in APT and switch into XPL at a later time, from about now I guess. Once this FY is out of the way, next year will have minimal depreciation charge. The higher market volatility did lead to higher transactional income last quarter, and the rebound in markets since mid March will also help.

But a bit like holding the fence inside track can often be an advantage in a horse race, there is an advantage of building a holding before it runs. I suspect XPL is capable of suddenly tightening, and we may already be close. Then a gap up is likely. With such a miserable mkt cap, the board are probably itching to recommence a buyback. Now they are generating positive cashflows, a warchest will be building. Its inevitable that either a dividend will be declared, or a buyback announced, in the coming 12 months. The mkt reaction to NRW reinstating a dividend (sp up 33%) is a reminder. I think one day we will wake up and XPL will announce something, and it will gap up, and the only volume will be impatient retail stale holders who have itchy trigger fingers. Its overdue.