I finally pulled together the quarterly FDV numbers thanks to your criticisms. Thanks for the incentive. Been meaning to do it for a while.
Apparently the quarterly EBITDA numbers were not reported by business for Apr and Jul 2021 so I had to enter some reconciling guesses to get to the full year numbers provided in Jan 2022.
Here are my observations:
(1) Oct 2022 is shown a significant EBITDA contribution from ex-Zameen businesses. They now contribute >50% Zameen Ebitda.
(2) Zameen revenue growth is not consistent. It had two step increases in Oct 2021 and especially Apr 2022. It was stagnant in Oct 2022.
(3) Revenue growth from ex-Zameen businesses seems to be stagnant since Jan 2022.
(4) Zameen Editda margin is consistently around 15-20%
Dissapointing:
- Zameen growth by itself may not be enough to justify a FDV share price of $2
Encouraging:
- Ebitda margin of 6% from ex-Zameen businesses has shown material improvement this quarter.
- Shaun and his team will not settle for this.
- If he can increase this to 10-15% in coming quarters then
all other revenue and Zameen metrics being equal, EDITDA could rise to $3.5mill per quarter. That may be enough to justify FDV SP returning to $1.50
I have changed my sentiment from Buy to Hold and will wait for the annual report in Jan.
(20min delay)