Ann: Quarterly Activity Report and Appendix 4C, page-25

I tried to forecast full year FDV 2022 result in a previous post.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-update-on-empg-ipo-plans-involving-zameen.7065550/page-2?post_id=64564203

Here is a more thoughtful attempt. Forecasts are calculated using Bear, Neutral and Bull metrics on 4Q 2022 results as follows:

4Q 2022 Revenue Growth: Bear (lowest Qtr growth % over past 4 quarters), Neutral (average Qtr growth), and Bull (max Qtr growth over past 4 quarters).
4Q 2022 EBITDA Margin: Bear (same Margin as at 3Q 2022), Neutral (same Margin + average Margin improvement over past 4 quarters), and Bull (same Margin + 2 x average Margin improvement).

All the other financials are extrapolated using the above.



Here are my take-aways from the above:
(1) On face value, any of the above 2022 full year results look impressive, and show good growth over 2021 full year results. But because 3 quarters of 2022 have already been reported, then a very poor 4Q result (bear case) or very good 4Q result (bull case) will be swamped in the aggregate numbers.
(2) A very poor or very good 4Q result does not mean FDV will inevitably fail or succeed in the long-term. It is just one quarter after all.
(3) But, the stock market will react to the information it is given. Therefore, my guess is we could see selling pressure if 2022 EBITDA is < $6.5mill, and we need 2022 EBITDA to be well above $7.0mill to generate any excitement and hopefully see FDV share price rise back towards $1

Interested in what other people think. I plan to compare FDV full year results against the numbers above when they are released in Jan 2023.