I calculated a Bear, Neutral and Bull case for these results about a month ago. Comparing the actuals, I get the following:
The 2022 full year actuals look impressive against 2021 but they hide the disappointing performance of 4Q.
- Zameen 4Q performance was bearish based on these numbers
- Latam 4Q performance was mostly neutral
- Rest 4Q performance was mostly bearish but Revenue growth was almost bullish
- Overall 4Q performance was bearish (as would be expected due to Zameen)
Looking at the detailed 4Q results,
FDV experienced a significant drop in:
- Zameen EDITDA (50% QoQ)
- Total EBITDA (33% QoQ)
- Zameen Revenue (28% QoQ)
- Total Revenue has declined QoQ for two quarters
- and EBITDA margin has declined QoQ for Zameen and Total FDV
It is easy to understand the collapse in FDV SP if these results were anticipated. If FDV does not return to growth in early 2023, I may have to change sentiment to Sell, but I maintain Hold for now, because I believe the above reflects macro conditions and mgmt can return to growth in either Q1 or Q2.
(20min delay)