I would not value AT1 on free cash flow for one Q. The fact that it HAS free cash (is profitable) now is very good. You need to consider any growth that is reasonable. That is each investors decision.
if you think growth will stagnate, then the value of the share price is way too high
if one thinks growth will continue for 2 or 3 years (say 100% growth), then the value of the share price is way too low
if growth is 'steady' (for years), say 20-30% revenue growth after this year of full production, then the value of the share price is about right
when you say 'this Q', 'this long after the IPO', the IPO is like 4 months old at start of the Q; THIS LONG?
why do you think growth will stagnate; when you say stagnate, do you mean at 2.3 - 3 mill revenue a quarter?
the fact that they are upping monthly manufacturing from the 250k, to 750k, to 1 mill, then 1.3 mill a month says management think they will grow strongly - at least this year; a good question to management would be 'why are you upping manufacturing to over 1 mill per month?', and see their answer; it can only be two answers: 'we have strong orders, leads, contracts in place we need to fufill' or 'we have some IPO money to spend, so might as well spend it'
probably the best way to VALUE AT1 'now, with nil future growth post fy21' is to assume they sell, 80-90% of their manufacturing capacity; it is a kind of simple; maybe someone here can do it; What if AT1 sell 1 mill units a month, 12 mill units, in a year.. what will revenue be; use 65% of that revenue to get gross profit, take off a few mill for corporate costs to get to EBIDTA, then see what sort of company you get
now... if we consider the Canaccord numbers, they project 20 mill revenue this year, and about 40 mill the next year fy22 (once the full manufacturing is up and running); and they say 2.9 cents eps at that level; so, if that occurs the share price should be in 30s somewhere, a PE of 12 or so, on a manufacturer... about right... that is on big growth for two years, then stagnate
I follow gold miners and they always are looking for the great drill results to eventually increase production and sales; gold is more simple than Atomo's 'herding cats' approach; but any Atomo holder is looking for a sudden, great drill result = which translates into a 'big new contract'
So, I think the base of Atomo is set; so we are just looking for new contracts
Now a down side can come if you think this scenario: AT1 ramp up to supply covid for a couple of years, then covid sales are not needed, and then they are suddenly left without not much forward sales on 'other stuff'; so we need to keep a keen eye on Lumos, HIV, Malaria, consumer health. The goal would be to embed that behind the covid scenes; and remember, we are not a BIO, we are a manufacturer to BIOs; we only need BIOs to need our devices; we do not need to 'guess' the medial, bio future
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