Ann: Quarterly Activity Report & Appendix 4C, page-53

You are very kind. Well, in that continued helpful vein and that of @JonesingPanda above, here is a quick very basic recap of recent qtrly cash sales figures. At the very least in stocks I look at I like to have 3 years of cash flow and accrual earnings data (a lot of upkeep). Lets keep it to cash flow. As a matter of course most people in the industry would be running one year trailing cash flow sales figures (TYCS - just the sum of the present and preceding three quarters). Here is a rudimentary summary of OCC's recent reported cash sales via Appendix 4C's:


These are the basics. But might be helpful for people not used to forecasting sales & earnings - and who doesn't like a pretty chart? Remember people these are just cash flows and you need to be looking at accrual earnings too. Very clearly the massive accrual sales increases OCC just reported have yet to hit cash flows (always big lags in payments in the medical world) and OCC sold 5,482 Striate units in the 4QFY23 vs 389 in 1QFY23!!!

The accrued reporting earnings at the end of this month are going to give us a far more accurate picture and similarly the 2QFY24 Appendix 4C in January, when we will have had more full year of Striate sales via BioHorizons and will be able to do a more accurate assessment of the acceleration of sales.

I suspect OCC will be reporting higher than $1,000,000 cash flows by 2Q24 (and very much higher in accrual earnings) by 2QFY24 (i.e. Oct-Dec23). If we plug in very modest 100% QoQ growth to just make them that (let me repeat again, OCC upped its Striate sales by 1300% across 3 quarters people) and just replicate this years sales patterns, you get this:



I actually think you are going to get a much faster acceleration of cash sales flows and accrual earnings, due to lags discussed in posts above. The sales increases outstripped OCC's own forecasts by 3.5 times (Jeez, they were on the modest side). I expect solid share gains, but unfortunately I don't expect a massive rally. OCC had its little exuberance run in 2015 as HotDog laments. Now its time for value investors and Insto's as the accounting and sales figure garner more considered attention. Importantly those gains are on fundamentals, not speculation and more likely to hold if OCC continues good sales growth.

Apologies to many of you, this is teaching you to suck eggs. Might be helpful to others, with the last three years' cash sales reported.

Paul was excited last year. I was personally instantly and finally relieved by the BioHorizons deal. I am excited by both the forthcoming accrual accounting data and the 1QFY24 Appendix 4C, when we will have had four full quarter of BH Striate sales. Again, these recent cash flow reports simply don't reflect the sales increases discussed. I will put my neck out and have a proper public punt on Remlpir/Striate unit prices from the fuller data too.