OCC 0.00% 37.0¢ orthocell limited

Ann: Quarterly Activity Report & Appendix 4C, page-27

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    It also tells you we can put to bed the virtue of the off-market placement share placement with, other than the bio-tech fund, what are just rich investors. I am only so critical of it, because I know the drammatically contrasting effects an on-market buy, at even half the volumes would have had on the share price - and we were guided more professional/sophs on-market buying at the AGM!

    Perverted accounting practices I'd not entirely agree with, but their quarterly reporting a bit confusing. They are not doing anything at all unusual by recognising the $16 million USD ($23 million AUD) cash they got in July 2022 in a linear accrual recognition - to remind everyone (some people struggled with it in comments above) you will see $1,152,000 recognised in accrued contract revenue every half year. Strictly speaking they are combining cash and accrual reporting in their overall revenue reporting in their Appendix 4C commentary, but loads of companies do it to more properly reflect the business - they are of course expending on liabiities for which they have already received cash assets - but it is confusing unless you unravel their reporting.

    I actually thought this result was in keeping with recent growth. Actual sales receipts are growing too slowly versus my expectations on them signing the BH deal, but they are growing - specifically cash sales receipts, like for like (YoY), were +143% 3Q 24FY vs 3Q 23FY. Sorry, but you and others above have been too myopic in comparing QoQ rather than YoY above in your commentaries (the seasonal QoQ fall was far greater in 2023). This result, not good enough for any of us given the BH/HS deals, but is very much inkeeping with recent sales growth patterns since they went to market and so is the continuing acceleration of the running 4 quarters to take out cash lumpiness:

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6092/6092624-28fe2d21f53882286785d3a1385114a9.jpg
    Whilst they are still too low for the higher attrributed sales, marketing and general biz costs (some of that cost adding our now fit for function Board members), yearly running sales across the last four qtrs grew faster than ever at 89%. Continuing that trend at say the last 4 qtrs growth average, you'd expect cash sales receipts to come in at around $922K for the next quarter given past quarterly variability. Management would probably report around anywhere between likely $1.85-2.05 million in their combined revenue commentary for the next quarter. To reconcile that, 3Q => 4Q last year went from $1.35M => $1.68M. If we take the same QoQ increase (to allow for seasonality in cash reporting) we'd get a 24% on this quarter's reported $1.63M => $2.01M (within the range of course.

    (This analysis more for everyone Kain, but I do agree with you, their qtrl reporting a bit weird, in that when you take out cash sales receipts, its quite lumpy for the accrual remainder, which given includes relative constants like R&D rebates, interest, their non-sales receipts revenues are very lumpy, which does confuse me as interest, R&D and contract revenues should be relative constant on an accrual basis - I can deduce/explain it from the notes, but this post too long already)

    Anyway, they've got $20 million in the bank (soon to be $23 million with the R&D) in part thanks to the placement. Sales receipts are growing far faster than OCC's combination quarterly reporting (they want to be greedy like many small companies and show all the revenues they get rather than just cash sales), but are obviously at a low base, but are now consistently higher than for example the $576K in recognised quarterly contract revenue. This company has plenty of moolah to continue growing Straite sales and get Remplir to the US market and the cash burn should narrow, IF they start making their sales and marketing expenses/staff more productive (rather than just adding more) and keep their general business costs down.

    (Sorry for the long post, hopefully helps some investors from comments above - I bought stock on-market sneaky.png today on the dip, I wonder if our new rich friends did).
 
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