Interesting quarter: Just getting a chance to read the report properly
How is Onslow tracking - Bigger picture stuff
- Current run rate (Jan-25) is around 19.2mtpa which more or less inline with the guidance.
- The 3rd Crusher installed in Dec-24 - The full impact of this will only start to be realised in Q3FY25
- Transhipper 4 slightly pushed right to February - few days really so no big deal. That will add another 20K tonne of capacity to load the vessels. Assume we need ~9 trips to load one cargo. The extra tonnes from crusher 3 will likely feed this beast
- In a nutshell seems to be on track to reach ~25mtpa run rate by Mar-25. Fingers crossed
Onslow Financial Performance - Q2FY25Net Debt:- Hit $5.1B - importantly this includes $300M FX valuation impact (AUD fell from .66 to .62). This 300M is an accounting impact and not a cash outflow. The first maturity is not until 2027. The coupon payments are in USD but so is the revenue from iron ore which will be realised in fullness of time
Cyclone/Reclaimer issues:- Production and logistics copped a major impact from these things. Transhipping was impacted for 8 days out of month. All this seems to be behind us now and not something that is going to carry into future. overall my best guess is we are a cargo and a half short due to these. ~300,000 tonnes. That's ~$30 million of cash that could have been.
Realised price:- Overall realised price of AUD 122 per wmt is beyond what anyone here forecasted. We had some really stupid numbers going around. God know how much Min Res needs these $$$ right now. This is also reflective of low AUD and not just the excellent realisation of 82% of the Platts index. At 35mtpa run rate this easily over $1.5 billion EBITDA (Inclusive of services and haul road)
And Lastly, LithiumNot so good by the looks of it but hopefully the cost cutting impact will come in second half of FY25 which will start to improve the cost per tonne metrics
$921 (e. Sc.6) cargo sale by Albemarle is indicative of prices in near future once Chinese come out of the CNY holidays and ramp up production
Min Res sells in the spot market so their realisation is better than peers
Could see some sort of transaction around bald hill and Mt Marion soon??
To concludeone of those quarter where there is enough material for both bull and bears. Bottom line remains
- Reaching 35mtpa by June25
- keeping Onslow FOB cash cost in guidance
- Iron ore holding above $95
If these 3 factors are kept under control - MinRes could be ~$60 by june25
DYOR before making investment decisions. 
(20min delay)