- This is their first deviation of expenses coming in above the...

- This is their first deviation of expenses coming in above the projections in the previous quarterly (19% over budget). Maybe they didn't expect the ETF would need fees prepaid annually.
- Result came in below my expectations, but is still on track for a strong record March, and I believe their statements in the announcement, like the cashflow will be back to improvement in March.

Revenue: +1.2% vs +6.1% last Christmas (weak, but still positive)
Trades: +1.2% vs +11.4% last Christmas (weak, but still positive)
Active Clients: +20.8% = +3735 users vs +4125 last quarter and +2404 last Christmas. 3735 is oddly low vs the 2119 that they implied for the month of October. I suspect the figure they gave was from mid-Nov, not end-Oct. 4125 last quarter was an exceptional quarter, sharply above average (usually 2300), so 3735 is still good. (good)
Client Cash: +15.3%. Roughly enough to offset the 1 rate cut, so interest revenue would be stable this quarter, even with the rate cut. +$18m QoQ, vs last Christmas being +$9m QoQ. Apparently, people withdrew some cash for Christmas, or invested it in advance of the market close over Christmas, or stopped depositing cash knowing that the market would close. (good)
FUA: +29%. A strong record for this metric (not sure why, exactly). I guess this would be correlated with market share. Having people keeping more of their investments in SelfWealth would mean more word of mouth. (very good)
Cash per active trader: down from $6.55k to $6.26k. There was a fall at last Christmas too, so this is somewhat expected. (ok)
Trades per trader per month: down from 1.45 to 1.22. There was a fall at last Christmas too, so this is somewhat expected. (ok)
Average revenue per user (annualised from 1 quarter): down from $296 to $228. Combination of RBA cut and Christmas. Also happened at last Christmas. (slight negative)
Market Share: up to 4.8% from 4.0% in 1 quarter (my estimate). (good)

AFSL Dealer Group Agreements: up from 28 to 31 (I implied from the presentation) (good)
Advisors Registered: up from 80 to 95 (I implied from the presentation) (good)
Advisors with potential access: up from 700 to 800. (good)

Expenses: Bad for both fixed and variable costs. Probably from ETF and advisor being new, but not bringing much revenue yet. (temporarily bad)
Underlying cashflow: from -$464k to -$999k. (temporarily bad)
Cash balance: $1.54m. Fine if the cashflow is quickly brought under control. Bad if we had another quarter of -$999k. March has a high chance of being better than -$999k, but I'm not sure about -$464k. March should be strong for clients, trades and client cash, but the uncertainty is about ETF and advisor growing quickly or not, and requiring much money or not.

Free trades: revenue per trader (my own metric) was flat QoQ, even with the RBA cut, suggesting that the proportion of free trades was down. That makes sense, since last quarter had a spike of free trades from the Q419 EOFY sale. This suggests that the +1.2% to trades is understated, since if you look at the underlying number, the paid trades were more likely up ~7% (my own estimate). (good, but not transparent, suggests a good March)


Overall: below my expectations. Trades and revenue weak over Christmas ETF and advisor yet to contribute much, but expenses up significantly for those 2 divisions. Market share going strong. FUA going strong. Client cash going well. 1 more RBA cut next quarter would be affordable, 2 would be bad. ETF starting slow. Advisor looking good, but with few transparent numbers. March on track to be a strong record, but with uncertain cashflow, because of the 2 new divisions. ~0.8% market share gained in 1 quarter.