Ann: Quarterly Cashflow Report, page-20

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binwood

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26/04/18

19:59

Post #: 32705062
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Originally posted by El Jefe ↑

Let me just repeat, I am strongly of the opinion that commissioning will run until the end of June at least. If I "change my mind" I will update my expectations but thats "my feelings" for now.

If we take that and put it against the nearest term comparison which is Tawana.

Commissioning started and 4 weeks later annoucement of first production.
First production started and 7 weeks later is first shipment.
First shipment is 3250T with nameplate run rate just under 13ktpm.
Thats one quarter of expected nameplate for first shipment.

Commissioning @ AJM may start anytime now, it doesnt really matter (see first sentence).
Commissioning will finish best case end of June at current guidance "imo".
If we take the same 7 weeks that it took TAW we are at approx 20 Aug for first shipment.
4500T would be equivalent for AJM of what TAWs first shipment is.

The problem here is we are not comparing like for like.
Whether holders want to admit it or not thats been the case.
Tawana was on time, AJM is clearly months behind.
In my experience things dont usually turn around like that mid project so I would not be surprised if first shipment doesnt happen until September. Im not totally discounting August as I said best case scenario end of August but I would expect September with what I know currently.

Its also odds on that there will be more money needed from somewhere before production. No way will they go into commission/production with such a compromised balance sheet.

Expand

TAW took 3 weeks from the beginning of wet commissioning (21 Feb) to first production.

AJM said in today's announcement that they had started dry commissioning and wet commissioning would occur in May. So based on TAW timelines they are on track for first production in June.

Also KB has said that PLS first production would be June and first shipment August suggesting a similar 6-7 week timeline from first production to first shipment as per TAW. Even Mt Cattlin only took 7.5 weeks from first production to first shipment and it is a shit show.

So provided first production happens June then first shipment is very likely August. I don't mind if you disagree with timelines, just sharing an alternate view

AJM Price at posting: 38.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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