@Icarus was actually negative cash flow overall. However I was anticipating a negative -A$13M cash flow, but the real number came in at -A$5.7M for the quarter which is a big positive. The difference between my estimate and the actuals were a) B2Y sold down their product stocks from 39kT to 20kT, so they sold more than they produced this quarter and b) the average price achieved of US$167/t for coking coal was higher than estimates...
I've further updated my estimates, on B2Y's own forward looking estimates they will be cash flow neutral in the December quarter... So I am still not convinced to invest further just yet... The capital raising will be nice, and could potentially allow the OC operation at Cook North to start early in CY19 - this or revenue from toll washing Bluff coal (also expected early CY19) would be a game changer for B2Y w.r.t cashflows... In the current environment I cannot see anything lifting the SP significantly in the short term - that said the long term prospects are all still staring us in the face... I hold and continue to look for a nice entry point...
Sept Quarter End - Negative A$5.7M cashflow, A$3.1M in the bank and also A$10M equity raise (total $13M equity)
December Quarter - Assumptions from Sept quarter of 190kT ROM and A$41.5 outflows
ROM Production: 190kT
Total Outflows: A$41.5M
Met Coal Produced: 158.0kT @ A$240/t
Thermal Coal Produced: 26.8kT @ A$129.5/t (USD$92/t and assuming 0.71 exchange rate)
Total Revenue: $37.92M + $3.47M (assuming 100% of product sold)
Cash Flow: +A$0.00 / quarter - current estimates has B2Y break even on their own 190kT ROM estimate and A$41.5M outflows in Dec quarterCash at end of period - ~A$13M
2.2Mtpa Case - assuming mine cash cost of A$100/t from Prospectus (assuming its USD)
ROM Production: 550kT @ A$100/t
Cash Cost: A$55.0M
Met Coal Produced: 130.9kT @ A$240/t
Thermal Coal Produced: 70.1kT @ A$127.4/t (USD$93/t and assuming 0.73 exchange rate)
Total Revenue: $84.1M + $8.9M (assuming 100% of product sold)
Cash Flow: +A$38M / quarter --- A$152M for the FY2020, worth the investment PE of 1X but lots of risk between now and then and many hurdles to jump...
