What you are saying is pretty obvious to anyone invested in...

What you are saying is pretty obvious to anyone invested in uranium and really it applies to any commodity. In 2008 I participated in the silver bull run and like with uranium I was fortunate to get out in 2011 just before the peak of the bubble. Over 10 years later prices for silver are only just hit all time highs again and in inflation adjusted terms that is a pretty big loss. Uranium has Fukushima but what excuse do other commodities have for their decade long bear markets?

The way I see it there is a hype cycle and a production cycle and if you want to speculate in the mid to long term you have to be aware of what its like to be in every stage of it in terms of your own psychology and he psychology of other investors. And yeah a deposit of any metal could be found that surges supply or some event could trigger people to abandon a commodity. Its just a risk you have to take if you want to speculate. If you dont want to take that risk the solution is simple, switch to a board market index so that you can sleep well at night.

But the thing is things with no risk also do not generate a return. Thats not to say that all risky things generate a return some risks are just uncompensated like the risk of a single company going bankrupt. But if no one thinks an asset is risky it will be bid up until the return you get is in line with the rest of the market. As a speculator I seek risk, especially risk where it is the result of a cognitive bias. If I was going to sell insurance it would be for airline disasters because people really worry about that risk relative to car crashes but airline disasters are actually very rare. The same is true for nuclear but not only are disasters rare they are also low impact relative to the harm caused just by the alternative.

I think SMRs could change peoples perception of risk to something more realistic when it comes to nuclear. Actually I think people already view the risk of nuclear submarines differently than they view the risk of a large nuclear powerplant. The hysteria around nuclear and the impact on that on the cost of approvals is I think pretty much priced into uranium markets. As expensive as uranium has become I still think it is at a massive discount for that hysteria and every time I see someone hysterically talking about the dangers of nuclear energy that gets me interested in investing in it. I dont need that hysteria to lift all that much but I can see a scenario where it completely flips and everyone including the shoe shine boy is investing in nuclear to save the planet and get rich doing it. I dont think SMRs are needed for that but they would commodify nuclear in the way henry for commodified car production and that would be great for the perception of safety and ultimately for lowering approval costs despite it being a less efficient way to do nuclear.

As for musk I dont think he would be all that impactful. Gates is already taking the lead on promoting nuclear energy and has a use for it as well.