Quarterly predictions, share price disparity and future...

Quarterly predictions, share price disparity and future trading.

Looking at guidance given we could assume a quarterly production of ~80K oz. ASIC between Mako (27500oz) and Syama (52500) would be ~ $1612 USD per oz. This includes cost associated with new mining code. ASIC will be lower in Q1 and Q2 as Mako is mining until June and will produce substantially more in H1 than H2.
Using a quarterly midpoint of $2800 USD for average realised gold price RSG stands to make around 95 million in Q1 alone.
This is before cap ex and exploration which should be b/w 20-30 million.
Ravenswood sale should be close now and with the POG at all time time highs I would expect the maximum value to be gained for its sale.
This should equate to near 70 million (AUD) for the promissory note, and 150 million (AUD) for the event of a sale.
This would amount to 130 million USD or about 10 cents per share.

Reflecting upon the share price. In October last year we reached $0.885 when gold was @ $2700 USD oz. Today the share price is $0.47 and gold is ~ $3350 USD oz. Even with an increase in cost of ~250 an oz they are earning around $400 more an oz than last year.
Not only has the profit margin increased by a around 30-40% future earnings (All assets / gold in the ground) is worth substantially more.

I understand sovereign risk, there always has been when investing in Africa but given they made the payments last year we should be looking towards a positive relationship for the future.
As bad as the situation was I think it has helped push the company harder to bring forward plans in exploration in other tenements which should provide a little more stability for the company.

All calculations are back of the envelope and it's a simple persons (my) option only - which has been created from existing company statements.

GLTAH -