CDV (ASX) Ann: Quarterly Financial Report and MD&amp;A

Originally posted by 2ic: ↑

Very quiet thread indeed. Dare we look at the elephant in the room, CDV on TSX getting completely smashed...

traded down CAD34c (that's AUD37.5c) before being tickled up on NO volume the last half hour.

It's volume on the daily which is most concerning. I understand strong rejection of CAD44c and even strong selling of 41.5c which represents Nord's offer price, even selling down to 39c yesterday to a roughly 10% discount to Nord's offer and conservative equivalence with where the ASX wants to sit while waiting for developments. But aggressive selling down to CAD34c with gold at $1750 last night.... why the rush and panic people?

Some explanations come to mind, in no order of probability.

Nord's associates are pushing the price down pending going formal, and the illiquid TSX is the easiest market to do it on and get traction
Word is leaking that Nord's have declined to go formal for the time being .... for whatever reason
Word is leaking of interest in a large CR being sought by CDV advisers

It's hard to imagine that word is leaking around some flaw or costs blowout from the independent project report that is material enough to cause a sudden panic. It's also hard to believe that it's just traders panicked by the breakdown in May's uptrend, especially because the ASX has traditionally led the TSX and the selling is all being led by the TSX this time (assuming yesterday's panic 650k 41c sell order on ASX open was TSX related and not someone on the ASX spooked by the same rumour).

Even if the ticket isn;t good value for money, CDV offers long term holders one hell of a ride doesn't it....

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I think the other thing hurting the CDV share price at the moment 2ic is that there are a lot more compelling gold stock investments out there at the moment with far less risk and they are moving positively on a daily basis - this is especially true in the Canadian market. Their well known locally managed developer share prices have been going nuts over the past month. I've been very tempted to dump my CDV's and move on to some Canadian developers that will be pumping out great ounces by end of this year and I'm certain that this has a lot to do with movements in CDV on the TSX - people are just moving on as they are missing out on all the action by waiting around for CDV to do something. The irony is that most of us invested in CDV because we saw the potential to possibly double (or more) our investment by way of acquisition action but the reality is if we had of thrown our CDV investment into less speculative goldies we would be celebrating great returns at the moment. When I look at my Saracen return (up over 60% in 4 months) and my WAF return (100%+ return in 6 months) I totally kick myself that I bothered continuing with exposure to CDV and wish I loaded up more on others.