Don't bother. PLEASE Simon.
I'm not sure yourself and even some holders here read through the quarterly/presentation either at all, or in any detail. The below was imo a pleasant surprise, given we weren't aware the government funding had an end date. Personally, I thought a client beginning their gov trial later this year subsequently had a free year from that date. With the 80% conversion rate, up from 75%, along with 97% retention rate for contracted customers, the 67% assumption rate is conservative. Either way, PCK will generate over $1m per quarter from just domestic RAC in Q1 CY23.
The $4.3m ARR doesn't include the ~30k beds that "PCK continues to work with to develop an implementation schedule" which represent another $1m+ potential ARR. Naturally you'd assume that some of these facilities might walk away if not able to experience any of the gov funding benefit...but with a 97% retention rate and stellar testimonials, the bulk might just sign on commercial contracts anyway
Away from this you'll see PCK approaching 10k licences factoring in the UK & NZ Aged Care & Nulsen disability. Another $500k ARR. Sales into Home Care through MPS reseller are set to kick off this quarter, same size market as aged care ($8-10m).
Then we have the government funded pilots in Scotland & Wales which could lead to national funded roll outs of another $5m ARR market.
Lastly, your "credit raise incoming" contribution. What was your ETA please? The following illustration is approximated based on projected $1.1m quarterly income from Aus RAC for Q1 CY23 + $2m quarterly expenses. Which is what we know so far.
31 March 22 = $4.7m cash
June quarter = $4.7m - $2m expenses + 500k cash receipts + $1.1m R&D rebate = ~ $4.3m cash end of June
September quarter = $4.3m - $2m expenses + 700k cash receipts = $3m
December quarter = $3m - $2m expenses + 900k cash receipts = $1.9m. Mid/late Q4 they'll need a cash injection if they don't receive any government funding from the UK, which is entirely possible. Sorry, just wanted to clarify this is what you meant by "incoming".
Would you agree at this point (Q4) PCK would logically be best to apply for a $2-3m debt facility and draw funds as needed considering the actual ARR from all domestic + global licences sold should be pushing the business much closer to profitability??
Many thanks in advance for your always unbiased & well informed response.
