So they are on an underlying EBITDA of 35.7m, and then there is another 1.5m Covid costs to 37.2 approx. As a thought experiment, if they can add another 10% to pricing to get revenue of 210m, and expenses up 3% to 159, that gives EBITDA of about 51m, maybe EBIT of 27m, PBT 25.5 and npat of 18m. EPS would be 9 cps in that scenario. If they buy some extra rigs there will be some extra depreciation, but they will lock in top contract dollars for some time as part of such a deal. Some rate limiting jobs just need the fastest possible rig, with the least wait time.
That increase in contingent liability is great news, but obviously looks bad today on paper, but the underlying value of that business will be a multiple of earnings. That SMS impairment is a bad look that hopefully will no longer command much attention.
I hope smaller players will be paying up-front, or have credit backing with MSV not having much reliance on their business, and directors no longer being given special treatment at all.
Looking forward to a good year based on their repeated comments!
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