MSV 0.00% 42.0¢ mitchell services limited

Great reading your posts thanks. I don't think the overall...

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    Great reading your posts thanks.

    I don't think the overall interest rate charged will decrease considering the industry they operate in. Yes, they have asset backing well in excess of debt but if that was called on at the bottom of a catastrophic cycle then those assets would probably be worth cents in the dollar again. In any case the interest expense is comparatively small now in context of business.

    They've indicated that Tier 1 clients will again be over 90% of their business this year. It's one of those peak cycle times when margins get squeezed higher & drillers actually get to choose which clients they work for. It cements relationships for down cycle periods maintaining client relationships as you indicate.

    I'm expecting revenue at full utilization (say 92 rigs operational over FY2022 on average inclusive of ramp-up over coming months and new rig acquisitions) of $240-$245 million for the year with EBITDA of at least 20% of revenue delivering $48-$50million normalised. A share price over $1 would still arguably be very cheap. That's why I think a buy back would be appropriate considering it takes about 3 years to pay off a rig on average (that might be a bit lower now if margins & utilization increase as indicated). If the EBITDA of $50million is achieved and I can't see why it wouldn't, there will be ample cash flow to retain capital in the business for expansion, pay off some debt, buy back shares and pay dividends. Barring macro left field events like a deep recession/depression/collapse in commodity prices, this should play out rewardingly this year.
 
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