Despite some of the bullish posts that precede this one, it's...

Despite some of the bullish posts that precede this one, it's becoming hard to resist feeling a bearish bias toward MSV. I’ve held the company for around two years now. Management have spoken of favourable conditions for much of that time, yet never quite manage to produce quarterly numbers that match their upbeat commentary. While the latest numbers are hardly poor, neither do they look especially good (i.e. consistent with management's assessment of conditions), and shareholders are once again being asked to be patient for another quarter...or two...or three while the ''organic growth strategy" completes. I want to believe, but feel like I’ve seen this movie before.

Below are some excerpts from MSV releases since early last year. The company has been describing conditions as “favourable,” “strong” and ‘’buoyant” for a while now. (Italics are mine.)

26 Feb 2021: H1 2021 Earnings Call
…market conditions are the strongest that we've seen for quite some time, supported by a lot of commentary in the media in recent times…government stimulus and subsequent investment infrastructure and other projects, copper, base metals is going to be very strong moving forward.

15 Mar 2021: Half Year Results Presentation
Solid operating base to move forward on in a strong market.
Market conditions are the strongest we have seen since 2008
Based on current market conditions, commodity prices, current contracts, and strong opportunity pipeline, Mitchell Services expects opportunities to exceed available rigs.
…we will take advantage of a strong drilling market, increase in demand and accelerated asset innovation program

26 May 2021: Wilson’s Rapid Insights 2021 Presentation
Based on current market conditions, commodity prices, current contracts, and strong opportunity pipeline, Mitchell Services expects FY22Revenue and EBITDA to continue to grow.

25 Aug 2021: Annual Report 2021
As we look past FY21 and ahead towards FY22, the business is extremely well placed to take advantage of buoyant market conditions and execute on its organic growth strategy. [Nathan Mitchell, Chairman’s report]
As we reflect on what an extremely busy and challenging year FY21 has been, I note that the outlook for the drilling services market is the strongest it has been since our re-entry into the Australian market in late 2013 and the Company is well positioned to capitalise on these positive fundamentals based on the size of our current tender pipeline and planned organic growth strategy which we expect will translate into strong future earnings. [Andrew Elf, CEO report]

21 Oct 2021: 2021 Annual General Meeting Chairman’s Address
As we look past FY21 and ahead towards FY22, the business is extremely well placed to take advantage of buoyant market conditions and execute on its material organic growth strategy.

31 Jan 2022: Quarterly Investor Update
The broader industry outlook for drilling services demand remains the strongest that we have seen since 2008 against a backdrop of extremely positive industry fundamentals
With both the supply and demand fundamentals so strong for the business it’s really starting to get exciting.