Ann: Quarterly Report 30 September 2014, page-144

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29/10/14

11:55

Post #: 14199823
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Originally posted by Sdaji ↑

When you started by acknowledging that there had been unbridled optimism thrown around here I thought I might be about to read one of the rare balanced posts in this area, but you worked your way towards finishing with "Last chance Adriano to get on board mate.....as in few months you will be kicking yourself for ignoring the opportunity...." which is... unbridled optimism.

Something I think tends to be missed around here is that we can crunch numbers and come up with projections, but they are always based on assumptions we just can't be sure of at this point.

If they can't get this Albion process to work (either because it's not cost competitive or they just can't get it tweaked and running smoothly in time to generate enough income to survive, or because there are too many accidents and stuff ups along the way), they'll eventually go broke and we'll lose our money. All of us need to be clear that at this stage complete failure is a possibility.

If they can get it running nicely and reliably, even if the profitability isn't as 'rocket to the moon' as the bulls claim/hope, I can't see anything stopping us from using the same technology elsewhere. If we have the ability to process refractory ore that others can't, or we can do it more profitably, once we have clearly demonstrated that we can raise capital and produce more plants, which potentially could send us far beyond $2. Again, I don't really think anyone can be entirely sure that won't happen either (although it would take years).

At this stage it's highly speculative, as it always has been. If you're betting the farm you're probably reckless. If you're claiming you know with certainty that things are all downhill from here you're being silly. This is speculative and there are several unknowns. If you've made predictions and turned out to be right, you were either partly or completely lucky. The same is true of predictions you make now.

As long as there are unresolved unknowns, it's a fertile ground for clowns to make big claims, and bicker against each other. The bullish ones will predominantly be adored and the bearish ones hated (and the ones being rational will generally be ignored or disliked!). The ones who post expansive calculations with outcomes that the reader wants to be true will be taken seriously and given respect, and it will be ignored that those calculations are based on assumptions we just can't be sure about.

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What I don't get is any acknowledgement of the numbers for last two quarterlies and cash flow generated.

This is based on actuals not forecasts and on those numbers you going to tell me that PGI undervalued at current share price with if anything continued to just achieve those sort of numbers.....there has been enough data over last few quarterlies to determine base case and downside case and guess what given where at not much downside given current production volumes and recoveries...study the numbers and you will see that...

PGI Price at posting: 3.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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