ABX 0.00% 4.0¢ abx group limited

Hi LP. I can answer your second question. I've spoken to Ian...

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  1. 70 Posts.
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    Hi LP. I can answer your second question. I've spoken to Ian about dividends in the past and he is very keen to turn ABX into a dividend paying stock. But he needs long term contracts for that, and the timing on that is anyone's guess. ABX has 3 very rare traits that I value very highly in a company, and which greatly aid the flow of dividends:

    1. they are self funding. I don't think anyone now doubt's ABX's ability to keep doing this for as long as necessary. They still only have 12 staff. Their cost management is peerless.

    2. low project capex. Bald Hill got going on capex of <$5m and is now probably profitable in its own right, even with sales at these low levels. Expectations are that Penrose will be similar, and I hope ABX will be able to generate the capex requirement from sales to the cement market. If not, the capex is so low they should be able to borrow, either from customers or banks (preferably customers). Binjour (QLD) is a higher volume but lower margin project- capex will likely exceed ABX market cap so they have no choice but to farm it out, as they have announced. As large as Binjour is, I value it roughly the same as Penrose, due to margin and dilution. IL mentioned Penrose again in this quarterly, confirming it "can sell for 5 times the current price of metallurgical grade bauxite". So it is quite possible we could make margin of $150-$200/tonne at Penrose, instead of $10-20/tonne at Binjour. And with the farm in, your Binjour margin will be only x% of the standard metallurgical margin.

    3. Completely free Moon shot. The refining tech is a fascinating project - cutting edge tech. Lord knows what capex here will be, but the opportunity is massive. Clearly, the market places no value on this project at all, so its all blue sky for us. If it works, this project could make annual profits of $50m-$100m, valuing ABX up towards $1bn. But its impossible to evaluate the chances of success yet, its just too early. But I think even the chance of that opportunity is worth something. I'm certainly happy to own a share of it for nothing!
 
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