my back of an envelope calcs are that costs are running at ~15m per quarter (staff, admin, advertising, other) and perhaps slightly more given guildgroup was only 2 mths which means they need to cover cash outflows of at least $60m
That means they need to generate ~100m in revenues at a 60% margin so they definitely need to hit $30m in revenues in 2Q AND improve margins.
The US business is going to make/break this business.....I mean with 200 added pharmacies in NZ and ~100 more to be added there is no discernible change in the ANZ revenues so IMO this model is just broken.......perhaps it may be breakeven at this stage, but with 80-90% share of the market, they should be churning out tonnes of cash, and that does not seem to be the case. I hope Rick Ratliff looks at this because you can't roll out this flawed model further (I'm sure the UK will loose tonnes of money if they do that in any meaningful way!)
The challenge of cashflow is unchanged...still ~12m loan and ~12m in cash so they can't go an spend that cash else they will struggle in this market to raise money.......lets hope Rick sees that too
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