Yeah fair point in that there is likely a high level of risk discount being applied to WGO for management risk based on their past performance. The question one has to ask ourselves is whether that discount is too high. At the end of the day, the company's current valuation = current balance sheet position + any significant asset/liability adjustments + discounted future expected cashflow. 300PJ = c.277BCF = 46MBOe. WGO's 50% share is 23MBOe. If one value those at $15 per BOe, it comes to approx 345mn. So unless the management risk discount of 50% is justified (which is factoring in a lot of value destruction by the management - not impossible but improbable even by this lot), I'd say it's one of those stocks where one buys and throw in the bottom drawer for a couple of year. The only other real risk is if WE turns out to be commercially unviable for whatever reason and is left as a stranded undeveloped field.
Anyway, the prevailing investor sentiment for any stock at any given point in time is hardly the most accurate indicator of value.
618
WGO Price at posting:
15.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
