Ann: Quarterly Report - April to June 2024, page-11

If they're using the prepayment to pay off the ATO, they don't have anything left for dividends from the prepayment.

But the prepayment isn't free, even if the customer discount is less than the ATO interest - I'd be surprised if it wasn't. Also they still need to deliver the coal to the customer, and they won't be getting any more cash.

So whatever the theoretical earnings is, a substantial part of that is already in their pockets through the prepayment (or, should I say, then out of their pockets and in the ATO's?)

And given their track record, I'd take their guidance with a few pinches of salt. For example, they guided FY23 at 2.2mt and delivered 1.8mt. They guided FY24 at 2.0mt and delivered 1.57mt. They're guiding FY25 at 1.8mt, and I've put a lower number in my model because I've learnt.