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29/01/19
10:31
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Originally posted by yanlin:
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Gekko, The pressure will only get greater over the short term. It looks like we will see a sub $2 price shortly, and this will be the trigger for either a predator to emerge or it could be the sign of more serious implications to the GXY business. If you look at the "short" narrative, it features the following logic: * Mt Cattlin will become Australia's marginal producer so will be vulnerable to excess supply talk * SDV has now been delayed by 12 months (and won't be in production until 2022) so will be a cash drag on GXY * A JV partner cannot be found, so GXY will have to go it alone, further impacting GXY's cash position * With GXY exploring alternative technologies to brine extraction, SDV has raised additional risk to delivery of new supply, so will be priced (down) accordingly All-in-all, this is a significant low in the development of GXY as a Li mainstay. It seems that a takeover or break up is the best outcome some of us could hope for. This has been a slow boil and now we are looking a little cooked. AT had better have something up his sleeve or I think we'll be looking to move about 2000km further north to find an alternative Li investment.
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I don't like your analysis but I have to admit I agree with it. Appart from the raising demand in the years to come (med term), I can't see anything positive in the short term. Hibernation is the only sensible option I can take.